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Feature:SIMprofiler-ing The Best Youngsters

We ask SIMprofiler^TM who it thinks are the best young players to look out for this season

Watching a lot of the under-21 European Championships in Holland this summer got me thinking as to which Premier League teams had the greatest amount of young talent last season and who of the young returning players were set to shine this season. In this year’s book we have detailed the attacking and defensive value held within each team under the age of 25. However, from discovering that the average player in the league peaks around this age, in an attacking sense, the upper end of this age band contains players playing at their optimum career peak and not still developing. Therefore, changing the definition slightly and looking at each team’s under-21 prospects (those aged 21 and younger), we can have a look at which teams have the most raw young talent in the league and which of these players are about to become household names in the next few seasons.

The Teams

First, lets take a look at those teams with the most attacking and defensive talent in their squads in terms of under-21 talent as a collective.   To do this we will look at our all-in-one attacking and defensive value statistics attacking goal value above-average (aGVA) and defensive goal value above-average (dGVA). Attacking goal value above-average (aGVA) takes into account a player’s goal scoring and assist rates, compares them to the average player playing in the same position, factors in how much they played and then gives a figure as to how many goals they add or take away from their team’s goals-for count. Defensive goal value above-average (dGVA) is similar in that it takes into account a player’s goal costing error rate, compares it to other players playing in the same position and then factors in playing time to get a value for how many goals a player adds or removes from his teams goals-against count.

In Figure 1.1, we plot the combined total aGVA and dGVA for players aged 21 and younger within each Premiership team. Players with a negative aGVA or dGVA are excluded from this part of the analysis as there is no reason to penalise a team for having a young player who is still developing.

Figure 1.1 Positive attacking goal value above-average (aGVA) versus positive defensive goal value above-average (dGVA) for all Premiership team s in 2006/07 in terms of players age-21 and younger.

As you can see there are a few teams that really stand out in terms of the value produced by under-21 talent. Manchester United were on their own planet in terms of aGVA finishing with almost three times (17.5) as much attacking value in their players aged-21 and younger than the nearest challenger Arsenal (5.4). Over half of that value (10.2), however, was in PFA player of the year Cristiano Ronaldo and most of the rest (6.90) was produced by Wayne Rooney. Both are now entering their age-22 seasons so there is a definite possibility that his graph will change dramatically this season. Arsenal came in second thanks to a great season by Cesc Fabregas and good ‘development’ seasons by Vassiriki Diaby and Theo Walcott. The team with the 3^rd greatest attacking value in its youngsters was Tottenham and the 4^th was Aston Villa.

Defensively the team with the greatest ‘young’ value last season was Newcastle United with a dGVA of just over five goals. Steven Taylor accounted for over half of this last season and entering his age-21 season this coming season he will no doubt add great value again. After finishing 4^th in attacking value from its under-21s Aston Villa finished 2^nd in their defensive value as well, with Steven Davis, Isaiah Osbourne, and Craig Gardner all finishing in the top-20 in the league in dGVA among players age-21 and younger. Like Aston Villa, Arsenal had good balance in their attacking and defensive value among their youngsters, finishing the season in 3^rd place in dGVA. Cesc Fabregas featured heavily here, but so did Johan Djourou and Philippe Senderos. 

Manchester United finished 4^th in collective dGVA among their under-21 talent, but most of that was accrued by attacking talent playing mistake free in front of a good defence. Man City finished 5^th thanks to above-average defensive seasons from Nedum Onuoha, Micah Richards and Stephen Ireland and Charlton ended the year in 6^th place thanks to the outstanding season Scott Carson had while on loan from Liverpool. 

Last year’s young starlets

We have mentioned some of the young starlets that shined last season, but table 1.1and 1.2 give the leaders in aGVA and dGVA among the players aged-21 and younger, respectively.

Table 1.1 The leaders in aGVA aged-21 and under during 2006/07

Table 1.2 The leaders in dGVA aged-21 and under during 2006/07

Momo Sissoko appears in the top-10 in dGVA and is Liverpool’s only player of any note within this study. What is interesting about this is that in terms of the under-25 talent study that appears in this year’s book Liverpool had the greatest value of all teams in the league last season in terms of combined dGVA among players in their squad aged-25 and younger. Although Sissoko was the only significant player aged 21 or younger the team had many valuable defensive players between 21 and 25 including Daniel Agger, Jose Reina, Alvaro Arbeloa, Javier Mascherano and Xabi Alonso.

Other players of interest from last season are Villa midfielders Isaiah Osbourne and Craig Gardner. Gardner has seen minutes in defence this season and although we haven’t seen Osbourne yet we almost certainly will before the season finishes. Man City trio Nedum Onuoha, Stephen Ireland and Micah Richards stand out too. Onuoha is the only one not currently starting regularly for City, but did make an impact off the subs bench during the opening game of the season. Richards and Ireland are both currently in their age-19 season and performing above the high standards they set last season. 

The last player of note in Table 1.2 is Andre Bikey of Reading. With Michael Duberry going down injured recently and Ibrahima Sonko still returning from injury the centre-back spot next to Ivar Ingimarrson has been given to the young Cameroon born centre-back. Having performed reasonably well in just under 1000 minutes last season it will be interesting to see how well he fares with an increased role for the time being.       

Young stars on the rise

As you might already know SIMprofiler^TM is our projection model that takes into account a player’s past performance and a statistically ‘similar’ set of players to predict a range of possible values and a mean forecast for the season ahead. One of the most exciting and interesting uses of this model is in looking at young players on the database and how they might fare in the upcoming season as they continue to develop. If you already have a copy of the book you’ll probably be up to speed on which youngster we foresaw great things from this season.   If not then this will be an eye-opener as to how accurate and informative this form of statistical modelling can be to a team executive wanting to know which of his young promising players should be given a longer leash. Currently the model only predicts attacking prowess for the season to come so highly competent defensive youngsters that don’t add above average production in an attacking sense (Onuoha, Djourou, Fernandes, Richards etc) will not make the list, but they should in no way be over looked. Therefore, the output, given in Table 1.3, lists those youngsters that should provide their teams with some above-average attacking production  

Table 1.3 Projected attacking statistics and aGVA ratings for players aged-21 and young in 2007/08

Tom Huddlestone is predicted to be even better this season with the improvements made in the Tottenham attack. As we discussed in this years book Tottenham’s midfield has an odd mix of players, especially in central-midfield. Huddlestone doesn’t offer the defensive stability of Didier Zokora, but is far superior in an attacking sense and his passing could be very valuable in kick-starting the Tottenham attack. 

We highlighted Michael Johnson for big things in the Man City Chapter in The Football Review 2007. He has almost lived up to them already getting a nice mention on Match of the Day, for a well taken goal versus Derby during the first week of the season, and looking very bright in central midfield for the Premier League leaders.

The biggest scorer among the group will no doubt be Gabriel Agbonlahor, who is predicted to improve ever so slightly from what was a great season for a 20 year-old in 2006/07 during which he tallied nine goals, that is if one of Everton’s fine young guns, James Vaughan or Victor Anichebe, doesn’t catch fire. We warned of James Vaughan’s frailness in his player comment in this year’s book, but even when he returns from his latest injury set back he should perform. In the meantime and until help arrives, Victor Anichebe can handle the pressure and will continue to score and create goals with his physical style.

Also of note in the list are the increased roles predicted for Craig Gardner at Villa and Vassiriki Diaby at Arsenal. Both showed flashes of things to come last season, but the model thinks an increased role for both would be beneficial to all concerned. Look out for both Mark Noble at West Ham and John Obi Mikel at Chelsea to see more playing time and be more productive this season. Noble was great in keeping West Ham in the league at the end of last year and Obi Mikel came on leaps and bounds late last season – particularly in defensive midfield – so look out for both to perform well beyond their years this season.

Even though he just makes the list with an approximately average attacking projection we are big fans of James Milner. Last seasons injuries and chances up front at Newcastle were difficult for Milner and probably hurt his game the most. After finishing the 2005/06 season inside the top-20 in aGVA in the entire league, Milner fell back below average in attacking production last season. The performance of some young players can fluctuate wildly and Milner is easily talented enough to move back above average this season. If anyone can get Milner back to his productive best it is Sam Allardyce so Milner could far out do the prediction above if things fall back into place.

Figure 1.2 Predicted attacking goal value above-average (aGVA) by team for 2007/08

Figure 1.2, above, gives the projected positive aGVA by team for the upcoming season as estimated by SIMprofiler^TM. Arsenal are seen to be the early favourites to lead the league in this statistic this season. What is interesting is that with Ronaldo and Rooney moving out of the class Manchester United are no longer predicted to have any value within the age limit. With Fabregas leading the way, as well as Diaby, Walcott and Song Billong the Gunners have a lot of developing talent that is predicted to be above-average in an attacking sense, even at such a young age. 

The next highest team in predicted aGVA is Tottenham who should get above-average attacking value from two main sources (Huddlestone and Lennon), but other could contribute such as Adel Taarabt, Gareth Bale and Younes Kaboul. Aston Villa and Man City are predicted in 3^rd and 4^th place respectively with a whole host of impressive youngster that could easily out do their projections and become big contributors to changing squads.

From the information we have, therefore, it would seem that Arsenal not only have the best (Fabregas), but the most depth in terms of high quality young talent in the league.  For that reason it is hard to see the Gunners being moved out of the top four by any of the chasing pack anytime soon, and even if they are this year, they should be competing for the title again soon if their young talent continues to develop as it has in recent seasons. Brighter futures also show up in the numbers for Aston Villa, Man City and Newcastle with all three teams having at least four very promising and all ready above-average players at on end of the pitch aged-21 or younger. For all these teams with young talent the trick, as always, is to continue the development and not allow the players to peak or regress from here. If that is achieved and the players can be retained, the clubs will reap the rewards of in-house player development (and buying young), with higher league positions at less cost.      

NEXT FEATURE: We ask SIMprofiler^TM who it thinks will win the league.