Table 1.1, above, displays the goalkeeping statistics for the eight English goalkeepers who played over 1000 minutes in the league last season. Given in the table are each player’s minutes, clean sheets, their team’s goals-against average when they played, goal costing mistakes, mistake rate per-90 minutes, and stop percentage.
David James is perhaps most people’s choice to regain the England number 1 shirt and is an interesting case. He had the highest stop percentage in the group, and was actually 4th in the league in the statistic behind Petr Cech, Tim Howard and Jose Reina But he also tied for 2nd in the league, with Foster, for the most mistakes. He is a fantastic shot stopper and very athletic, but he will make mistakes.
Steve Harper is an interesting case because he is Newcastle’s second-choice goalkeeper, but that shouldn’t deter England management from taking a look. Whilst covering for a injured Shay Given last season Harper was terrific, making only three goal costing errors and posting the 5th best stop percentage in the league. Even though injury probably played a part in his poorer rating, Given’s stop percentage was 4.3% lower in 445 more minutes on the pitch.
Had Ben Foster been fit it would have been interesting to see if he would have been given a shot at being United’s first-choice keeper as well as England’s. He had an approximately average stop percentage on a below average team. However, like James he also committed a high number of goal costing errors last season. Robert Green forced his way into the West Ham line-up nine games into last season and only relinquished it through injury for the rest of the campaign. In terms of his statistics they were fairly comparable with Foster’s - with a slightly lower stop percentage, but a greater number of clean sheets and a slightly lower mistake rate than the former Watford player.
Scott Carson had a fantastic season for a relegated Charlton club - posting an approximately average stop percentage behind a defence that conceded 11 goals below average in games the young keeper played in. He also had one fewer clean sheet than James, who had the most of anyone in the group, and had the lowest mistake rate, finishing tied for 4th in the league among the 23 goalkeepers with over 1000 minute on the pitch.
Normally at this point of any statistical analysis or report we would say we are down to long shots or unlikely suspects that remain to be considered for whatever we are looking at. However, England’s current number 1 sits within this region, making this an acceptable range to continue looking at.
Nicky Weaver had a good season, but not a great one. Although his clean sheets and mistake totals are good, his stop percentage is quite low, especially when you consider that he had one of the better defences in front of him for any goalie on this list. In the games Weaver played in the team conceded 1.31 goals fewer than the average defence, but his stop percentage rated 3% below-average. For that reason he was replaced by Andreas Isaksson and has since joined relegated Charlton Athletic in the Championship this season.
Chris Kirkland has continued to disappoint after such a promising start to his career at Coventry. Before he went down with another injury at the end of last season he wasn’t having a great season. Even though he played behind the worst defence on the list, his stop percentage was approximately 5% below-average and he had as high a mistake rate as David James.
As you can see from Table 1.1, above, Paul Robinson was rooted at the bottom in stop percentage. But even though the defence in front of him conceded over seven goals more than the league-average side, this doesn’t entirely explain why his stop percentage was over 6% below the average goalkeeper in the league, let alone the top goalkeepers in the league. When you consider that Petr Cech led the league with a 92% stop percentage, you can see how far below that level Robinson was. In Robinson’s defence, however, both David James and Ben Foster made more goal costing errors and James, Foster, Robert Green, Steve Harper and Chris Kirkland had higher mistake rates.
This of course was last season and everyone can have a bad season from time-to-time. As we mentioned in the opening section to this piece Robinson was essentially a statistically average goalkeeper (80% stop percentage) in 2005/06 and if he were to get back to that level this season he would be much more deserving of international duty. However, this season hasn’t begun well for the keeper for club or country.
Table 1.2 Englishmen between the sticks so far this season
| Age |
Team |
Player |
Mins |
CS |
GAA |
Mistakes |
MLG (90) |
stop% |
| 22 |
Aston Villa |
Scott Carson |
180 |
1 |
0.50 |
0 |
0 |
88.89 |
| 32 |
Newcastle |
Steve Harper |
270 |
1 |
1.00 |
0 |
0 |
88.00 |
| 37 |
Portsmouth |
David James |
360 |
0 |
1.25 |
2 |
0.5 |
83.33 |
| 26 |
Wigan |
Chris Kirkland |
360 |
2 |
0.75 |
0 |
0 |
83.33 |
| 27 |
West Ham |
Robert Green |
270 |
1 |
1.00 |
0 |
0 |
78.57 |
| 27 |
Aston Villa |
Stuart Taylor |
90 |
0 |
2.00 |
0 |
0 |
77.78 |
| 26 |
Derby |
Stephen Bywater |
360 |
0 |
2.25 |
2 |
0.5 |
70.97 |
| 28 |
Tottenham |
Paul Robinson |
360 |
1 |
1.25 |
0 |
0 |
64.29 |
On the early results from this season, and we mean early, considering that only four keepers on the list have played more than three times this season, similar patterns of performance have transpired. David James has again performed his feast or famine routine with an above-average stop percentage, but a below-average mistake rate, Robert Green has been steady in the West Ham goal and Robinson has been well below-average in stopping opponents goalscoring chances.
However, three interesting things have emerged. Firstly, Chris Kirkland has so far performed to a much higher standard than that witnessed last season. Secondly, Steve Harper has continued to be excellent in covering for Shay Given again at the start to this campaign and lastly, Scott Carson has been excellent behind a better defence than he had last season at Charlton.
It is hard to take too much from the early season figures at this stage of the year given the extremely small sample sizes, but it is clear that Robinson has been under-performing at club level for a prolonged period now, which makes you wonder how he continues to be the country’s first choice. Of the chasing pack, David James has the most international experience and had a great season with Portsmouth last year. However, he is mistake prone whichever way you cut the data and while he will be stable in all other facets of the game, can you take that risk at international level?
It is too early to guage whether Kirkland’s improved performance will be maintained and Ben Foster’s injury takes him out of the running, which leaves only two other possibilities – Steve Harper or Scott Carson. It is unlikely at age-32 that Harper would get his first international chance now, but he has been that good for Newcastle in reserve and shouldn’t be over looked.
So, if England are truly looking to replace Robinson and believe David James is not the answer, then the choice really has to be Scott Carson. Some might point to his inexperience at 22, but he is only a year younger than Foster (and arguable played as well as the United youngster last season for a relegated club), has played Champions League Football with Liverpool, and has played for England at ‘B’ and under-21 level. Even excluding his fine level of performance over the last year, his experience at international level, including the under-21 European Championship last summer, make him the obvious candidate. It’s now up to England management to make the sensible choice.